COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IN DISTRICT KARAK AND TANK, KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Temperature variability is an important component of climate change, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where agricultural production, livestock and water resources are highly climate-sensitive. This study comparatively examines minimum and maximum temperature variability in Districts Karak and Tank, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, using 60 years of monthly observations from 1956 to 2015. The dataset comprised 720 observations for each temperature variable in each district. Monthly averages were used to investigate seasonal patterns, while alternative linear and non-linear regression models were evaluated to characterize long-term temperature behavior. The findings indicate pronounced seasonal temperature cycles in both districts. In Karak, minimum temperature increased from January to July and then declined, whereas maximum temperature increased from January to June and subsequently declined. In Tank, minimum temperature increased from January to June and declined afterward, while maximum temperature reached its highest level in June, followed by May and July. Seasonal models explained 94.60% and 93.70% of minimum and maximum temperature variation in Karak and 95.70% and 94.60%, respectively, in Tank. Long-term annual temperature series in both districts exhibited irregular and cyclic behavior. The fourth-order logarithmic model produced the lowest residual sum of squares for all four district-temperature combinations. The selected models had relatively low explanatory power for annual variation, indicating that time alone does not adequately explain long-term temperature variability. The findings are consistent with recent evidence of significant temperature variability and warming across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistan. The study highlights the need for district-specific climate adaptation measures involving water conservation, heat-resilient agriculture, livestock management and improved climate information services.